Low Probability Of Severe Storms Late Tuesday: Check Your Local Forecast

James

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Post on May 21, 2025

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Low Probability of Severe Storms Late Tuesday: Check Your Local Forecast

Stay informed and prepared as a weak system brings a slight chance of severe weather.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting a low probability of severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern United States late Tuesday evening. While the overall risk remains low, residents are urged to remain vigilant and check their local forecasts for the most up-to-date information. This system is expected to be relatively weak, but the potential for localized severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out.

What to Expect:

The primary threat, should storms develop, will be damaging winds. Hail is also a possibility, though the size is expected to be relatively small, generally under one inch in diameter. The chance of tornadoes is considered very low. The timing of any potential storms is expected to be late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.

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Why the Low Probability?

The atmospheric conditions necessary for widespread severe weather are not expected to align perfectly. While there will be sufficient moisture and instability in some areas, the overall shear – the change in wind speed and direction with height – will likely be insufficient to support the development of strong rotating thunderstorms that often produce tornadoes.

This doesn't mean you can completely ignore the forecast, however. Even weak storms can produce damaging winds and hail, particularly in isolated areas.

How to Stay Safe:

• Monitor your local forecast: The NWS website (weather.gov) and your local news channels are the best sources for hyperlocal weather information. Sign up for weather alerts on your smartphone.
• Have a plan: Know where to go in case of severe weather. Have a designated safe room or shelter in your home.
• Stay informed: Pay attention to weather warnings and advisories issued by the NWS. Understand the difference between a watch (conditions are favorable for severe weather) and a warning (severe weather is imminent or occurring).
• Be prepared: Keep your cell phone charged, have flashlights and batteries readily available, and gather any essential supplies you might need in the event of a power outage.
• Check on vulnerable neighbors: Reach out to elderly or disabled neighbors to ensure they are aware of the potential weather and have a plan in place.

Understanding the Forecast:

The NWS utilizes sophisticated weather models and observational data to produce their forecasts. These models are constantly evolving, and new information can change the forecast. That's why it's so important to check your local forecast frequently, particularly in the hours leading up to the potential severe weather event.

Remember, preparedness is key. Even a low probability event can have serious consequences if you're not prepared. Stay safe and stay informed!

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